Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Waiting on the Election....11.4.14

Red for SPY and QQQ, green for DIA. and in a surprise move XIV actually moved into the green today after a long hiatus in the red.  M3 is in cash having been stopped put yesterday for no loss.
The oddsmakers are projecting a &%% win rate for the GOP and statistically speaking, having a Democratic President and Republican Congress has been a bullish winner and we are now in the historically most bullish months of the year so the odds look stacked to move the markets higher...at least until year end. That being said we are already at new all time highs and although we may see a surge up past previous resistance we are in fact technically overbought (see the TrendX in the right panel).  We've talked about paradigm changes before, when the left side of the chart essentially becomes little help in forecasting the emerging right side of the chart and we have to be alert to the fact that such an event may be upon us now.