The M11 Prospector....11.30.15

This started out as a client project and then took on a life of its own.  M11 is the next generation of the old T11 program and it has several  new features including discretionary benchmarks, programmable limit stops and the momentum/mean reversion ON/OFF switch.  Its actually been a fun project and I think it has a lot of utility especially for building model portfolios. M11 has an end of day feed... the idea being that you let the algorithms determine the best odds scenarios and then load the top 6 inputs into M6 or the top 3 inputs into M3 for real time analysis of the top ranked positions.  M11 will be added to the software options at the end of the week.
Click once on chart to expand. (this is just part of the actual file.

VDX Updates and Site Changes....11.28.15

The response to the Mosaic software offerings has been great.
I hope there's something in the mix that will help boost your bottom line and limit your risk exposure regardless of how or what you trade.
VDX has been the most popular file, followed by the M3 SPY. which can easily be converted to a delta neutral platform.
Thanks to all for the support.  Going forward the Newsletter will focus much more on the nuances of the various Mosaic software platforms and less on general market dynamics.

This week's VDX updates reveal some weakness in index momentum.  We're looking forward to Monday's Ponzo update to provide some guidance going forward.
The relatively good news is that IWM (Russell)(not shown) is outperforming both SPY and QQQ although it could be argued that's just momentum catch-up.  Barron's is skeptical about IWM's resilience in this week's edition  but only time will tell.
Thanksgiving week is historically bullish and some high profile signal services found themselves on the wrong end of Wednesday's and Friday's trades.
China (FXI) took a big hit end of this week and utilities (XLU) are once again kissing oversold levels.We're keeping a close eye on the transports (IYT).  If they fall off the ledge again it does not bode well for the overall market.

M6 Real Time Special.....11.25.2015

The format of the M3 site will change starting next week so I can devote more time to managing the LQB hedge fund as well as fulfilling programming requests from various retail and professional traders.
The Newsletter will continue going forward and in response to requests from current readers I'm making several of  the Mosaic software formats available for a limited time.
In observance of Black Friday we'll offer the brand new M6 real time model for $ 350...which will include a free copy of the MoDX (VDX) platform.
If you already own M6 end of day the upgrade to real time plus the MoDX file is $80.
The M6 RT and upgrade store buttons will appear starting tomorrow and are good for 10 days only.
Click once on the dashboards below to expand views.

Above is the real time momentum model..Below is the mean reversion version.
Inputs are at user discretion. A simple 2 click process allows users to switch between the 2 versions.

.

SPY Ponzo Update...11.24.15

This week's SPY forecast update has produced a positive skew into year's end (week 30). The mood seems welcoming to a rate hike, especially the financials.  We are in the most bullish time of year and notwithstanding some major calamity the odds favor the bulls till year's end.
This is also the time of year when the Russell (IWM) is typically strong and normally outperforms SPY.
Tomorrow we'll see how IWM is doing and is likely to do going forward.
Don't forget the Mosaic software sale... limited time only.

Changes to Mosaic format and Products...11.23.15

Recent discussions with my major fund investors have led to the decision to scale back future internet postings and instead focus on managing our hedge fund.
In response to the many inquiries about access to the software that drives these Mosaic posts we are making various programs available to users for a limited time.  Periodic updates will be included with all products as will technical support via either email, phone or Skype for international users.
The current Mosaic product lineup is shown here.
For the real time M3 platform we have included a TLT (30 year treasuries) benchmarked version as an option for those that prefer to trader the fixed income realm.
Got questions?  Drop me a line and I'll try and answer them.
For now here's The weekend update of the TLT VDX chart.  With a rate hike all but guaranteed in December TLT and its 2X inverse TBT may be a fountain of opportunity.
Here's what the actual M3 TLT platform looks like.  Easy toggle between MN and MR modes.

VDX Updates for SPY, XLU, FXI and AGG....11.21.15

This week's VDX updates confirm the generally neutral tone of the markets in the short term.
The VDX charts from last week all resolved in the direction we forecast.  SPY had a great run as did the seriously undersold XLU and AGG (total bonds).
Next week we can expect low volume and potentially higher volatility as Thanksgiving looms. Holiday season low volume days often produce higher ATRs (average trading range) than normal since the liquidity of market forces may not be available to play the counter-trend.
HFT's love those kind of days so be wary of attempting to buck the trend.

Momentum versus Mean Reversion,,Part 3....11.19.15

These screen shots look a lot like yesterday's, in fact they are taken from the same data...the difference is that in yesterday's post the results of each model reflect daily rotation into the top 2 ranked positions in equal dollar amounts.
Today's results reflect returns based on daily rotation into the top 1 ranked position only.
When the portfolio of inputs includes both market neutral issues such as XLU and negative beta issues such as SH (SPY inverse) the net results are consistently more attractive and risk buffered when the top 2 inputs are traded.