Saturday, April 12, 2014

Selling Pressure Persists...4.12.14

Thursday selling theme was repeated on Friday with QQQ and XLF leading the charge down (see VEGA below)....the exact opposite of what a bullish momentum model should look like.  Some of the big momentum movers are taking heavy hits while many of the large cap "value" stocks are actually remaining relatively strong...that's a good sign.
We still haven't seen any suggestion of a selling climax via the NYAD although the VIX has been in a steady grind up.
Typically we can see the next likely support level, but with selling pressure still building momentum, we need to be wary of a possible new support/resistance paradigm that could drop the markets another 10% before a bottoming pattern sets in.  That's not to say that such a scenario is expected, but simply to point out its possible.
Looking at Friday's run of the M6 Gamma model helps to show the relative weakness of the QQQs....surprisingly the Qs are weaker than the SPY ultra SSO....that's weak.
And, even with 3 bond components in the Gamma mix, the model is in cash having violated the Short Term ALERT cross.