Monday, April 7, 2014

Watch for Trap Door...4.7.14

Another red day, as expected.  Regarding Saturday's post, the NYAD is still a long way from capitulation levels in the low teens or <.... it closed at .37 
The Qs made an early rally attempt but then went into a slow decline for the rest of the day with a late afternoon rally fizzle.
Generally speaking, when a major stock or ETF is in a downtrend and price hits a new low early in the day ..that low will be revisited (or penetrated) sometime in the remainder of the trading day.  That was the Q's story today.
In fact, the early low of 85.56 turned out to be the closing price although price did crumble below the S1 pivot in the afternoon session.

The thing to watch out for now is the dreaded Trap Door....wherein price appears to be on a rally and then suddenly reverses to the downside.  Such an event would likely usher in a sub teen level NYAD and POSSIBLY provide a capitulation level buying opportunity....but not for the risk adverse trader.
For now the downtrend continues at a measured pace with the internationals ( EFA) and the emerging markets (EEM) showing some surprising strength.