Tuesday, May 6, 2014

Weakness Persists....5.6.14

Selling persisted throughout today's session, closing at or near daily lows.  The market's somewhat ambivalent position on selling last week is now solidifying...to the downside.
I hope some of you have taken advantage of the free stock charts site and set up a real time watchlist to help track any active or potential positions.
For this update I've added the Latest Short Interest column which reveals the high level of negative sentiment in IYR, XLU, XLV and XRT.  The moving average columns also indicate that the maximum bearish position has been achieved with SH and TLT in the top momentum slots, while IYR,QQQ,SPY, XIV and XLV have become the top momentum movers to the downside.
Using this matrix is like having a second set of eyes examining market flux and dynamics and it can be used in conjunction with M3 or M6 to confirm momentum rankings and/or to provide another money management stop completely different than the M3 auto-stop or the P6.
A look at today's SPY TrendX and Vixen charts shows the strength and persistance of the downtrend. Although XIV was actually in the green during the early session, the fact that VIX was also green at the same time should always serve as a caution that such conditions cannot be sustained.  In this case, as expected, XIV broke to the red and followed SPY weakness.