Monday, July 21, 2014

Leadership Lag......7.21.14

In response to a reader query on my contention that SPY is generally  lagging the other indices here's a little study of SPY, DIA and QQQ using M3 to look at leadership momentum and it's clear that SPY has been the recent laggard.
Using the M3 rankings it has been possible to generate a slight premium return over a SPY buy and hold strategy, however, if we consider the cost of commissions and the hassle of keeping track of ranking positions and executing timely trades the chasing this model has little payoff.
That being said, the model reflects no management stops.  Had we used this model and gone to cash in late February and then re-entered the market is late April using the P6 STOP we could have added an additional 4% to our net returns.