Thursday, July 31, 2014

XIV Trap Door Opens...7.31.14

We theorized a couple days ago about the possibility of the XIV premium returning to zero and today's action got us well on the way. The VIX is up 25% while XIV is down over 9% and all this weakness is based on nothing tangible other than a complete lack of buyers.  The NYAD (NYSE advance decline line opened at .10 bearish as it gets...and never made any headway as it looks to close at .12.
That's as weak a reading as we've seen all year.
Technically we should see a bounce tomorrow based on the dramatic violation of all short term standard deviation metrics.  Whether that will materialize remains to be seen.  Typically we'd see a lower low as folks who couldn't watch today's live action place after hours orders to sell at the open (not recommended).