Tuesday, October 28, 2014

What's Next?...Ask Ponzo.....10.28.14

The high volatility markets have given me a few new grey hairs recently so I thought it best to consult the Ponzo Time Machine to see what might be in store for SPY since my main money maker M3 is based on a beta spectrum of SPY.
The previous post of the Time Machine showed an 11% chance of an October decline to 182, which turned out to be dead on.  Here's the current prognostication>>>>.
A close look at the crystal ball suggests a 25% chance of a return to previous October lows in the near term and a 20% chance longer term.
Now these are just odds based of what's happened over the past 50 years when the current 25 week pattern presents itself.  What's interesting to me is the lack of a market collapse scenario, the prospects of which are becoming more frequent.
M3 went to XIV today in support of a near term bullish mood.  The FOMC could derail that tomorrow but in the balance the odds favor the bulls....just keep those stops ready to fire.