Saturday, December 6, 2014

Slack Momentum....12.05.14

The markets are going up and hitting new highs but momentum is clearly non-committal. The Qs are lagging the other indices and we know from past studies that  QQQ and XLF lead rallies.  XLF has been keeping up its part of the bargain but the Qs are due for a boost.
The talking heads have noticed this disparity also and are pretty solid in their consensus that the NAZ will hit 5000 again before year end.  Since the Qs typically lead the wider NAZ market it should follow that the Qs offer a relatively attractive risk reward profile.....assuming the markets keep climbing. And, just because XLE has been hitting new lows lately does not mean it's a great buy (see daily VEGA chart below).