Thursday, July 9, 2015

Don't Look Good....07.09.15

Despite the NYAD opening at an amazing 10.32 it was all downhill for the rest of the day and according to the ergodic/ADX convergence it was real selling, not HFT arbitrage. That nasty little plunge at the the last 5 minutes doesn't bode well for Friday, which has bearish odds of 75% .
The VIX weekly chart going back to 2013 below shows that there might be a washout day about to occur.  Past surges in the VIX have culminated at the R3 level....we're not there yet and Friday or Monday could be ugly.  By the way we have a new final, last chance, we're not going to put up with this any more line in the sand for Greece...this Sunday....after which we'll probably have another line in the sand if things don't get worked out. Many "experts" claim a Greek departure from the Euro is already pretty much factored into the markets as a result of the slam/bam declines we've seen in the past 2 weeks.
Overnight the Chinese markets rallied and ended the day up 5%...basically flatline for the entire US session. Now this looks great on the face of it but you have to realize that overnight the Chinese banned short selling and threatened to arrest anyone who tried it and barred anyone with >5% position in a Chinese company from selling for the next 4 months.  There were a few more rules designed to slow the fall including market breakers at various levels but the net affect was to hamper both speculative and vested sellers from the entering the arena.