Tuesday, July 7, 2015

SPY, China and VIX....07.07.15

In the first 2 hours today SPY dropped sub S2 pivot to hit 204....the mid term support level and then began a steady grind up for the rest of the day.  Coming off extreme oversold levels this recovery move was technically expected but the Greek,China, PR situations still have the markets spooked. Volume was about 25% above normal and that pace was evident from the opening.
The metals were particularly hard hit, with gold and silver being down +/-5% for most of the day.
China dropped another 6% early on but recovered to 4.5% down at the close.  The VIX index was equally wild with over a 20% swing intraday.  We are in cash with a bullish bias.  This may hold for the next 2 days but unless Greece gets resolved by Friday we expect Friday to be negative and the following Monday to be another explosive sessions.  For now we'll just play it one day at a time.
The 4 hour bar charts of SPY, China (FXI) and the VIX are shown below.