Saturday, July 11, 2015

VDX Updates + links....07.11.15

Here's the Mosaic VDX outlooks for SPY, XIV and VXX.  Clearly the volatility ETNs are stretched far outside their "normal" expansion zones and if we just look at the technicals on face value it would appear that the bulls have odds in their favor.  Things aren't quite so simple however once we consider the various global macro economic assaults on the markets and ...just to boost the uncertainty a bit further...earnings season kicks off next week and then Friday's is options expiration.
That's a lot of volatility factors all occurring simultaneously so, needless to say, caution is warranted.
Here's two links that provide educated observations on the trading environment and the China factor.
Randy Frederick is head of Schwab options trading who actually trades.  I've known Randy for years, he's the real deal and his feel for the market pulse has a proven track record.
Then there Evergreen Capital, a hedge fund that offers a weekly state of the markets update and this one is focused on China...again authored by someone actually in the trenches and not just talking off he top of their head.  The piece is long but if you're concerned about your capital account it might be worth your time.