Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Trap Door ALERT...07.01.15

We're done with June, historically a down month and calendar watchers were not disappointed.
The bulls, on the other hand,........... OK, now what?  the days before and after July 4th are historically red.....just something to consider and since the markets are closed Friday tomorrow is effectively the last day of the week = 72% red odds. The rally today was marginal and we can see from the daily chart below there's actually pretty good odds that we could revisit SPY March/April support @ 199.  And don't be lulled into the bulls camp thinking the Greek situation is resolved with Tsipras's letter kinda agreeing to European parameters. We've got miles to go before that issue goes away and the Europeans are inclined to wait for the July 5 Greek referendum before moving forward in any way. Bottom line, we are are the ledge of a potential Trap Door, when rosy hopes turn into dismal selling......and, in case you missed the fun last Monday we are now poised to have another explosive opening next Monday based largely on the upcoming weekend events in Greece.