Thursday, September 24, 2015

August Lows Ahead?....09.24.15

That's a rhetorical question. Twice a week I join an open line of a couple hundred Schwab traders to review a variety of technical charts and their possible implications for the near term. Lasst Tuesday the moderator asked how many thought we would revisit the August lows.  Results were 62% yes.
Today the question was repeated and the results were 91% yes.  That's a substantial pop in bearishness.  I don't in any way claim that my colleagues and I are any kind of brain trust in market forecasting, I just pass this info along for what its worth.  Each new day seems to bring news of slowdown or pullback in some industry or sector.  Today it was CAT and the transports (minus the airlines).  Each time the bad news hits the markets drop and it doesn't help that global markets including China, Japan, Germany, etc are all in defined downtrends....the worst in 6 years.
So...odds of revisiting the August lows seem pretty good all things considered.
PS.   The old reliable TrendX chart (shown below) is now bearish.