Saturday, September 5, 2015

VDX Updates....09.05.15

Here are the VDX chart updates for SPY, FXI, XLU and QQQ.  As we suspected on Thursday Friday did not end on a good note although it was down another 100 points midday so in could have been worst.  The markets continue to fret about what the FED will do on the 17th. According to the FED Futures, the odds are now 62% the FED will postpone any increase until December (at least)...odds were 47% previous week.
There's probably a great strategy to play the likely volatility explosion that will occur on the 17th, .....I'll try and post at least one prior to that point in history.
The market's are closed Monday...but not in the markets are going to be doubly coiled to spring come Tuesday's open.
FXI (China 25) continues to deteriorate...if it gets down to 32 the bullish odds for a bottom increase.
XLU (utilities) which is normally regarded as a safe haven, is one of the worst performing sectors and we're looking for a swoon down to 38 as a possible entry point.
Finally, QQQ (NAZ 100) is (surprisingly) looking worse than SPY in terms of losing momentum. Keep in mind the just a few big names APPLE, GOOG, MSFT, etc. dominate the capitalization of the Qs  and despite the on-going hype APPLE counts on China for 30% of its revenue and, as we mentioned a couple weeks ago, market share there is being captured by a new Chinese (private) phone provider with technical features much superior to APPLE. Just something to keep in mind.