Here's the latest SPY risk forecast as of Monday's close. The best fit scenario is bearish for the rest of the year although Ponzo is predicting some pockets of strength along that path.
Today's action was particularly grim with the NYAD trading range only .10 to .27....the most bearish since the recent flash crash. Obviously investors are still fretting over the FED;s recent lack of action and the continued slide in the Chinese markets.
The fact that the transports (IYT) are under performing SPY is not a good sign for the bulls.
Caution remains the watchword for now and cash is looking attractive.