Thursday, October 8, 2015

Looking Forward....10.08.15

Here's a piece by Mauldin (actually Blodget) that forecasts dismal market conditions for the next 10 years. He presents a series of historical arguments to support his case that make a lot of sense...not that market activity makes any sense at all in this highly manipulated environment.
Anyhow, whenever I encounter a problem my immediate response is to try and find a practical and actionable solution. That's just me.
I know a lot of traders don't like to re-balance positions on a daily basis so here's 2 new versions of the old Lazy Man model using just SPY and AGG (Ponzo chart posted yesterday) that trades on a weekly basis (positions rotate at Tuesday's open + 20 minutes).
The first version looks at returns based on positions established after a one week pullback
The second version looks at returns based on positions established after a two week pullback.
Both models use a 1.5% limit stop per week.
If stopped out we just wait till the next week for new signals.
These look like no brainer models but there's actually some sneaky stuff going on in the background and I'll peek at a few of these nuances in future posts, including what happens when you trade the top 2 positions instead of the top 1. .How about that drawdown versus the SPY benchmark buy and hold?