Thursday, November 5, 2015

M3 Signal Review....11.05.15

A bit of a momentum setback today although volume was very low and the general consensus is concern over Friday's job's report.  The Fed Fund expectation of a rate hike in December has risen substantially in the past week based on hawkish comments by Yellen and other Fed governors.
Most technical analysts believe a .25% hike would have little or no longer term effect on the markets. In fact, the impact of a rate hike would most likely be bullish as it would reflect FED confidence in the economy's strength.
The M3 technical panel on the MN (momentum model) is now turning negative.  Keep in mind that these declining signals (ALERT, Skew and TrendX) do not mean the markets are trending bearish ...rather it means the reliability of the signals is declining and positions should be scaled back or put in hiatus until the signal lines become more upslope.