Friday, March 18, 2016

M11 BONDS Update...03.18.16

One interesting market dynamics fact is that bonds have risen almost in sync with equities in the progress of the recent rally.  So, if traders are buying both equities and bonds...what does that mean?
Could be a whole lot of hedging going on as the general analyst consensus is flat to down for the rest of the year.  We've retraced off the recent lows to almost 90% of the previous highs in the majors and seasonal weakness is only 45 days away so its not unreasonable to expect some presumptive risk off positions being put in place..  That's one theory at least.
The M11 BONDS ETF model (which includes 3 equity ETFs  to confirm the direction of market momentum) is shown in both Momentum and Mean Reversion modes.
Both models show attractive linearity and drawdown metrics but its the Momentum model that likely has the best trading opportunities.  This is a top 2 sort and we can see that TLT and TIP have progressed from the far right to the left side ranking in a slow and deliberate manner ...suggesting those issues may be about to technically overtake the current leaders in positive momentum..