Another week and the SPY crash scenario is still with us. The VIX actually looks less prone to a volatility pop than last week but the risk is still evident.
What's surprising is the status of XLE (SPDR oil sector) which looks very benign in both its short and long term volatility. If you like butterfly options this is the perfect risk/reward profile you look for....stagnant and narrow range.
The bad news is that SPY has now taken a distinctly bearish tone in the average forecast signal.
We got to our 202 upper resistance (200 day line) and now the markets have stalled.
The likely short term momentum is now down even though current breath signals are positive.
This looks a lot like the precursor signal we saw back in late November and early December when the trend was clearly negative.
The FED will announce sentiment on future rate increases tomorrow and it could get volatile depending on the tone of the minutes.