Wednesday, March 23, 2016

TLT PONZO and M1 Updates....03.23.16

I should have posted the TLT PONZO update yesterday since it adds to the level of confusion in deciphering data driven market direction forecasts. The newest Ponzo is clearly as bullish as the SPY chart, which is not a realistic scenario, so the end result is more uncertainty and less confidence in the current signals.
Note that the error factor on the best historical fit for TLT is much better than on SPY.
We are most likely in the headwinds of a major market paradigm shift and the best risk/reward odds for that are bearish...which means the mean reversion models that have been lagging may soon evolve into attractive momentum models, at least short term.
Note the rising equity curve and the TrendX upslope. (Updated 7 AM PST today)
Current signal for tomorrow is out but that could easily change by the end of the day.