Thursday, September 1, 2016

Close to a Sure Thing......09.01.16

That's how we'd describe the opening 65 minute bar in TLT. With no apparent yield or rate related news TLT blasted through the bottom of the Bollinger Band channel (see yellow arrow below).  This just doesn't happen and the odds of a near term rebound back into the channel?  About 100%..  It actually took 30 minutes for TLT to rocket off the bottom but when it started it went straight to the daily high. If you see this setup again take note of a possible great opportunity.
As we continue development of MVP momentum and mean reversion trading models i noticed this piece from Mauldin on repercussions of a strong dollar.
While we're finding that MVP does not provide very exciting trading signals for UUP (dollar db bullish ETF), the dollar does significantly impact the value of other currencies like the Euro which we can trade effectively, so the outlook for the dollar is a useful study.