Wednesday, October 5, 2016

M6 Momentum vs Mean Reversion...10.05.16

Here's the current M6 default market model looking at a balanced beta spectrum with appropriate stops applied.  Its been difficult lately for traders to get traction in recent markets and equally as difficult to decipher whether market dynamics favor a momentum or mean reversion paradigm.
The long time end of month and seasonality odds skews published by the Trader's Almanac have proven woefully unreliable and otherwise reliable metrics like put/call ratios and RSI2 have only been consistent in their generation of false signals.
What's interesting about the M6 results below is that regardless of the paradigm the short term results, the 30 equity curves and the 2 year RSQs look almost identical.
AND both are at the zero line on the 2 Day Alert
While we wait for a volume breakout the delta neutral approach continues to be our safety net.