Saturday, October 15, 2016

VDX Updates and Trader's Outlook...10.15.16

This week's VDX updates as of Friday's close have both SPY and TLT oversold and VIX trending into a less volatile mode.  Note that SPY and VIX have the VDI+/- lines converging (typically bullish), which TLT has the 2 lines diverting.
Earnings surprises, Clinton/Trump dynamics and now an increasing giddiness over the FED's possible timing may derail that sliding VIX ...odds are that it will.
The weakness in TLT that was forecast by Monday's Ponzo chart is coming true with a vengeance.
Historically the TLT slide should be bullish for SPY but the unknowns mentioned above have trader's on a cautious course for now.
The sell the open mode of last week carried through into Friday and the Trader's Outlook technical view is now modesty bearish.
This week also saw 2 reversal days on the delta neutral platform, some of which could have been minimized with the recommended trailing stop and this facet improvement of the platform remains a work in progress. I'd like to incorporate pivot levels into the trailing stops but, as usual, there are a few more wrinkles than initially expected that must be ironed out to generate a reliable stop setting.