Sunday, September 1, 2013

P6 Stop Fires for ALPHA Positions..8.30.13

There were some updating problems with the Yahoo data since Friday although those now appear to have been resolved.  The models should now update through 8.30.13.

Friday saw a continued decline in the markets and parallel weakness in SLV and GLD and the P6 on each chart has now turned downslope....as was suspected in Thursday's post.
The metals have had a great run but the odds now favor a retreat to the RSQ line as a minimum.  Booking recent gains now and waiting for a signal confirming the next leg up is one money management tactic that will avoid possible drawdowns.
On the hybrid model which is now termed ALPHA we note the migration of gold off the top 2 sort while (surprisingly) silver is still in the sort.
It is at times like this that close attention to the larger P6 stop is important and we can see that an equity/P6 cross occurred on Friday and the 5 day metrics show that a top 2 sort drawdown is greater than our SPY benchmark...two strong arguments for cash positions.
For the Fall update to the program we have added a gradient based P6 signal to the 3 month chart to help identify trend exhaustion and reversal points as well as a gradient based TrendX indicator to be used a confirming stop signal that actually generates several degrees of risk exposure for closing vested positions as well as several impact points for possible new vested positions.
The platform is still in beta testing but a late Fall release is expected.