Tuesday, October 1, 2013

A Rally Surprise...10.1.13

Well...that was a surprise, but at least the statisticians were happy that the first day of the month was bullish.
Based on today's action we might wish for more govt. shutdowns to push the markets even higher.

OK...seriously...we may assume that short sellers had established overweight positions going into last night's failed funding conclusion. On a heels of merely moderate buying this morning the we can then surmise that many short sellers were likely squeezed into covering their positions, thus pushing the markets even higher....although the markets did manage to sustain an impressive net gain for the day volume was light.
At this point the markets have become a betting game more than an exercise in economic fundamentals and corporate metrics lending further credence to the model's CASH status.

This view is supported by the current state of the ALPHA model which is just biding time in CASH as we await the next bullish sector trend.  It certainty wasn't GLD or SLV, both of which were heavily hit in today's action, along with bonds.
The short term TrendX Alert looks more like a DNA sequence that a momentum guide and reflects the lack of leadership among any of the ALPHA components.

This "going no where fast" status of the portfolio is reinforced by both the pairs momentum study and the 2 longer term TrendX studies below.