Despite strong historical precedents for bearish odds this week optimism for a FINAL resolution to the ongoing Greek tragedy let global markets higher and the US markets were happy to follow. SPY opened at R2 with a NYAD value of 3.93. Our general rule of thumb (95% reliability past 5 years) is that if the NYAD opens above 3 the odds for a green close are 100%. (A little fun with numbers there). SPY did manage to penetrate R3 before falling back in the afternoon session but still managed to close at R2.....that's bullish. Volume was thin and we still have 4 days in the week to sustain losses but the models are bullish until proven otherwise. We've seen this Greek bailout fail so many times in the past months that a healthy bit of skepticism is warranted. Here's my friend Dave Moenning's take on the Greeks. Just like Friday we had a nasty little selloff at the closing bar.
Tomorrow we'll look at the weekly Ponzo charts for the SPY and QQQ.