Saturday, June 13, 2015

Trap Door Opens...06.13.15

The dreaded Trap Door, which I had suspected was lurking in the background until Friday, did in fact spring open on Friday ostensibly on breakdown of the Greece bailout program (that's getting to be an old story).  Next Wednesday we have another FED day so volatility will likely spike until then as traders assume proactive and defensive positions against any possibly change in FED policy.  Meanwhile, yields are up, 30 year bonds are falling like a stone and equities are displaying what might be considered a developing head and shoulders patter (see 2 hour chart below).  The SPY VDX looks pretty ugly in terms of risk and is now downslope.  Per the 2 hour chart SPY support in down where we defined it earlier in the week...around 207.50.  Keep in mind June is historically the worst performing month of the year and we're only half way through it.
Regarding the Mosaic models>  the 3 day low model was the winner for the week with a gain of 1%.