Tuesday, June 9, 2015

Looked like a Rally....06.09.15

But SPY ended almost dead on yesterday's close...which was actually below the pivot (see below).
The closing Ergodics/ADX divergence reflects continued market uncertainty.
The bulls just couldn't get the momo going but Wednesday might hold better promise.  We shall see.
The VIX was surprisingly DOWN at the close...which should bode well for the bulls but we've been hoodwinked by the market before so caution is still the watchword.
Going forward we REALLY need to keep in mind the dreaded Trap Door pattern wherein what looks like a one day rally turns into an opportunity for the bears to ramp up selling and swamp the bulls, It's happened before many times so forewarned is forearmed.
We also have the updated SPY PONZO forecast and the skew short term remains bearish.
NYSE announced margin debt is now $500 billion...the last time the markets crashed it was $400 billion, just to give you a sense of  how fragile this market is.