Thursday, December 3, 2015

A Technical Breakdown...12.03.15

Volume was almost double yesterday's and the bulk was to the sell side driven by disappointment with ECB QE inaction and the growing conviction that Dec will see a rate hike.  There was no hiding place for safety...the dollar was down 2% as were bonds and the safe haven of utilities caved in also.
There were some significant technical threshold breakdowns and the limit stops in bonds failed to perform.  The delta neutral models have proven their worth over the past 3 days and as market volatility surges (the VIX was up over 20% today) the risk buffer provided by such a strategy becomes more and more appealing. See today's update.
These are the hourly charts of the UUP (dollar) and TLT (30 year Treasuries).