Saturday, December 12, 2015

VDX Updates for SPY, XLU VIX and TLT....12.12.15

Looking forward to the historically bullish next week we're coming off the worst week since August and certainty not tracking the latest Ponzo forecast, which suddenly turned bullish ;last Monday. Currently SPY is below the 200 and 50 day MAs and extremely oversold by any technical standards.
The VIX is now wildly overbought after a 30% rise on Friday. In the past one day surges in the VIX that exceeded 20% were destined to produce a positive day for SPY 90% of the time.
We'll just have to wait to find out if Monday's close yields the expected results.
We are suspending coverage of FXI (China 25).  The highly manipulated Chinese markets and the questionable validity of state issued economic and policy data make China unattractive for now.
Next week, in case you've been in an isolation booth, the FED is expected (86% Fed Fund futures consensus) to raise rates by .25% and opinions are varied on whether this long awaiting change in FED policy will create more or less volatility in the markets.
Work continues on the XX volatility model including the limit stop indexing routine.
See Fridays; M3 Insight.