Wednesday, May 25, 2016

PONZO Updates ...05.25.16

Another leg up today as market manipulators defy the Sell in May VIX call buyers that have piled into the market. What's surprising about this week's updates is the REALLY bullish tone of the SPY while VIX looks neutral and bonds maintain the modest bearish outlook seen for the past 2 weeks.
Contrary to Bob Pisani's piece on flat being the new up on the VIX, it looks like we might make the case that flat is the new down given current market behavior .
The FED's rate decision in June will produce some pumped volatility and the current odds for a rate hike are 38%, up from 8% only 3 weeks ago. Recent surge in the financials (XLF) suggest the bet is that the hike is a done deal.