Saturday, May 14, 2016

VDX Updates as Market Weakens.....05.14.16

The technicals suggest TLT wildly overbought and SPY on a precarious ledge of support.  Note that I've turned off the volume weighting component for SPY and TLT for this week.
Schwab's outlook echoes the precarious theme as we enter an historically weak couple of weeks before the usual first of the month expected pop. Options expiration this month could be particularly volatile now that earnings season is almost over and the funds re-position their hedges.
Volume has been muted for the past week, another symptom of the summer doldrums although if volume does pick up the odds are it will be to the downside. This is the type of uncertain environment where delta neutral setups can have superior returns versus news driven whipsaw days....IMHO.
Note the SPY volatility charts following the VDXs....we're on an upswing = caution for Longs..
SPY volatility charts shown above.