Tuesday, May 24, 2016

The Only 2 Charts You Need to Watch....05.24.16

Sounds arrogant? Well, I meant it tongue in cheek. But IF you could only look at 2 here are my picks using the MVP Long setup for XIV and the Short setup for VXX.  The Long/Short algorithms are not the same but they are also not the inverse of each other.  Each MVP model has a couple tweaks along the way that try to capture the idiosyncrasies of  trading long versus trading short. Note the total number of exposed days..only 25-35% of the time and the results reflect an active limit stop.
I know everyone is tired of hearing this but a trailing stop in each model would have pushed total gains up over 15% in each case. I actually find the VXX model the more intriguing study as VXX is an intrinsically decaying asset that has lost over 90% of its net value since inception.
Click on each chart to enlarge.
Today's wildly bullish market action ON VERY LOW VOLUME looks like a lot of short covering as SPY and the majors kiss the R4 pivot (which only happens once in a blue moon) and we're likely to see a pullback off the SPY 208 upper resistance level back down to the 205 area.
Tomorrow we'll look at the new Ponzo updates...which are more than a little surprising.