Monday, June 20, 2016

Monday VDX Updates...06.20.16

With the odds for a BREXIT yes vote steadily eroding over the weekend global markets pulled a switcheroo and pumped the NYAD to +5 levels most of the day.  There are still a lot of hedges out there and our Friday butterfly is already in the green a few cents.....which could (and probably will) all change dramatically by Thursday.
Looking at the VDX updates as of Monday's close you'd think that the US markets could care less about the BREXIT.  Volume was slow coming out of the gate and finished at 80% par.....most of the action being on the late selling side.
For now everything is neutral ...but in motion.  This is NOT a stagnant, consolidating market and IMHO the setups presented over the weekend updated for Wednesday's close are the best odds plays.
One reader wondered why the delta neutral setups for XIV/VXX or SSO/SDS wouldn't be on my favored list and the answer is simple...I expect volatility (short term) to be extreme on Thursday morning and the likelihood is that the limit stops would be blown through at the outset, never to be revisited for the remainder of the day. Delta neutral players know that means at the end of the day you have neither made or loss've simply missed a whopper opportunity.