Monday, June 13, 2016

VIX Hits 20 +...Now What?....06.13.16

A couple weeks ago the VIX PONZO forecast a VIX 20 scenario and here we are at 20.73....way ahead of schedule.
VIX was up another  21% today and based on historical patterns we're due for a pause. (see below)
VXX, the VIX proxy ETN has actually traded 20 million more shares than SPY today although late action may be short covering volume.
The odds of a FED hike are now zero near term...most likely trigger date has moved to December giving the markets time to stabilize over the late summer although Mauldin is less than optimistic for the summer outlook and cites some compelling arguments.
The VIX is now at mid term resistance (see below) although today's M1 studies of VXX and SPY indicate the odds favor more downside based on the Short Term Momentum mode..