Tuesday, August 2, 2016

Ponzo Updates Urge Caution...08.02.16

Today's action demonstrated the no sweat advantages of the delta neutral approach. And there may be more to come as we finally get a break...the biggest SPY down day in a month.
Bonds are woefully oversold at these levels but global forces are at work to at least mollify that condition with a focus on corporate offerings.
This week's Ponzo's suggest a short term pullback in SPY (this was data as of Monday's close) as well as a short term bump in VIX.  TLT looks a bit more problematic technically speaking as yield curves deteriorate and negative rates loom large on the international markets. The best Ponzo historical fit is clearly bearish for bonds and current momentum is tilting in that direction.