Thursday, February 14, 2013

T2 Update 2,14.13 + Upcoming

This is the status of the default T2 model portfolio with a top 1 screen.
XLE has held top slot for 3 weeks now so not a lot of trading involved on that situation.  We've managed to outpace the SPY with this strategy on a short term basis, but looking at the longer 2 year term an aggressive risk management program would have upped returns significantly.  One example I've talked about several times ....P6 upslope = vested, P6 downslope = cash.
Even in the face to today's market weakness XLE is still in the green and never underestimate the power of big oil to drive the markets...either up or down.  We'll look at a couple pair trade setups that can help confirm the XLE trend next.
There's a lot of short interest in the markets:  Here's an up to date list from BESPOKE.
Nevertheless, most of the CNBC talking heads are bullish on cyclicals, financials and commodities and  bearish on treasuries.  We shall see.