Monday, March 11, 2013

VTV View of Volatility...3.11.13

For subscribers who don't have the short term VTV software here's the current view showing how volatility has NOT fallen relative to the recent SPY gains.  As of this morning's open the VIX stands at 12.17, slightly ahead of the 2/19 low of 12.09.  For technical chart readers this looks a lot like a "double bottom" or W pattern, which is usually accompanied by a rise in the instrument (VIX).  There are a number of factors that may keep us locked at this level for a bit longer but we are currently at a critical juncture.
The XIV (inverse VIX proxy) has been spinning its wheels for a while as reflected in its current ranking and most of the short terms gains from the top 2 approach have not been due to volatility declines.
In fact, the instability in the #1 ranked slot has produced sub par returns short term if positions had been held for the duration without exercising the P6 slope risk management stop on VTV (downslope P6 = cash, upslope P6 = vested).
The big FED buying days this week are Thursday and Friday and Friday is monthly options expiration so we may expect some bullishness and volatility. 
I did expand my study of FED trading and posted the results on the Prophet site if this setup interests you..