Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Missing the Break...10.6.13

Today resolved the recent narrow band consolidation that had predicted a big move. 
Unfortunately, all the models except the new short term SPY and Vixen models were indicating cash positions for today's open. 

A closer look at today's results shows a disparity of returns.  Despite Microsoft's huge upward
surge the Nasdaq actually ended up in negative territory along with many other big names that one would have expected to end in the green on today's pop.

Expecting a pullback, if only short term, before more upward gains. 
However, we're now within easy striking distance of DOW 16,000 and given the typical strong seasonality of the markets and few fundamental obstacles the prospects of hitting that target seem strong at this point. 

Here's a look at how the VIXEN model has fared recently...keeping in mind the model is based on a maximum 6 month lookback and that the goal is maximizing short term gains.
The signals are now bullish based on the short term SPY / XIV skew (pair dynamics) but still negative using the P6 stops so we don't have an all clear risk on signal yet..