Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Slow churn up continues...11.27.13

Another day, another couple points up. Friday's a short sesssion and expect uber low volume.
The thing with such days, however, is that small traders who normally really can't effect market momentum often do manage to pump up stocks on days like Friday when the big traders are on holiday.  Coupled with the end of the month bullish thing Friday could be surprisingly strong. 
We shall see.
Info on the new SPY Trader has been added to the Mosaic homesite. Just scroll down on the page until the SPY Trader panes are visible. I'm adding a few final tweaks this weekend and then next week the platform will be released.  Pricing will be modest.

At the same time that bullish signals are seemingly everywhere we are seeing cracks in XIV momentum, usually a telltale that the underlying SPY is weakening. Once again this may be the product of the low volume holidays, or perhaps something more threatening.
For now we have a cautiously neutral posture with the TrendX closing dead on the zero line.
And below is clear evidence that the XIV is sinking, meaning the VIX is rising = caution flag.
Finally, just as a heads up....the TrendX 2 day ALERT STOP has now crossed down through the trend line and the equity curve has also turned slightly down in the past 2 days...suggesting the risk/reward profile is weakening ......adding fuel to our cautious stance.