Saturday, November 23, 2013

TrendX Points Higher...11.23.13

Today's post will conclude our little study of the TrendX charts site and the implications of the charts signals.
Next week we'll look at what the % change pairs studies show relative to the TrendX and the P6.
The following week (after Thanksgiving) we'll finally release the new M6 models and the SPY Trader.

Approaching next week the TrendX signals are bullish and, coupled with traditional bullish seasonality before turkey day and the end of month typical bullish bump, can Dow 17000 be a possibility?
We are technically overbought but that hasn't dimmed market enthusiasm before so for now we just take it one day at a time.

Although the SPY VIXEN was in full bull mode all day long the TrendX was a bit more iffy, especially in afternoon trading, and at the close we were actually close to the zero line IN MOMENTUM...while price was still rising.
This was an unusual divergence between the VIXEN and the TrendX and illustrates the utility of looking at a third conforming chart pattern....the SPY,SSO,XIV Trader chart.  Shown below....
The SPY, SSO XIV Trader was clearly bullish all day..displaying the picture perfect relationship of the 3 ETFs that basically guarantee rising prices. As long as we don't see a significant divergence from the XIV/SSO alignment then price will continue to follow the slope of the price bars.  This works in inverse also...when the 3 ETfs are all pointing downslope its best to seek cash.
Finally, here's a quick look at the SCHWAB model and what's interesting here is the pop in SCHE, the emerging markets ETF.  On Friday morning a number of analysts argued that the emerging markets have lagged the other indices and are due for a good run...  This may be a harbinger of that pop.
Meanwhile, SCHH (housing) looks awful.