Saturday, September 27, 2014

Yo-Yo Markets....9.27.14

A lot of volatility recently...there's an understatement....kind of reminds me of the good old days of late 08-09 when the Dow could move 200-400 points a day up and down for weeks on end.
In times like this I generally prefer to stand aside and avoid the whipsaws but the new SPY-X model has helped to clarify the odds and eke at least a few points out of this see-saw and AS LONG AS WE PAY ATTENTION TO OUR STOPS the risk is fairly contained.  In Friday's action the VXX stop fired at 30.02 (see below) and we closed the position for only a .3% loss...much better than hanging with it until the end of the day (MM stands for "Money Management").  There's always the potential that the markets will open way up or way down and blow through our stops but those are typically driven by big news days and the markets have recently shown little tendency for big opens or big downs that reverse ....a radical change in open to close behavior from the 09-2012 period when fading opening gaps, either up or down, was a high probability strategy.