Monday, November 19, 2012

DN Update ..11.19.12

Here's the latest version of the DN model as I work towards merging the pairs signals with the momentum rankings to produce a simple trading setup that only trades QQQ and SH (SPY inverse) Long, depending on whether the bias of the markets is bullish or bearish.  The model has obviously been skewed to the bearish side for the duration of out study period...12 days...and now appears poised for a new trend which favors Long positions in QQQ.

Despite the spate of unknowns...the fiscal cliff, mid-east conflict, etc.. the market is in a bullish mood historical pattern for Thanksgiving week.  The Stock Traders Almanac notes that the day before and the day after turkey day have been up days 35 out of the last 37 years....pretty good odds.
AAPL is soaring....up 5% so far today and the materials sector..oil, gold and the basics...are all running strong.

One thing to watch in these rallies is the alignment of QQQ and and the financials.  Historically speaking any rally with legs will be led by these 2 sectors and conversely, any rally failure will likely be seen in the relative weakness of these sectors.  That's also one of the reasons that XLF is included in the portfolio of ETFs that the DN model is examining for momentum.  The relative position of those two ETFs is important in determining the reliability of the momentum rankings...when they are side by side the rankings have more credibility than when they are separated by several slots.