Friday, January 4, 2013

The FED, T2 and T2 Bond Lab..1.4.13

That comment yesterday by Bill Gross about the FED and Treasuries really spooked the market in  conjunction with release of the FED minutes and set off a selling wave in TLT and related bond funds.  Here's an article from Schwab Active Trader.  Sorry I can't link to but its a proprietary feed from Schwab:
AAPL may likely be under some selling pressure as Gundlach of Double Capital forecast a price of $ 425, setting off a heated debate on CNBC.  And, to add to the pain, gold is getting hit once again.  Maybe we've seen the highs for the year. (just kidding).
Here's the T2 update...which shows IWM still in #1 slot, although SPY has fallen from grace and should be closed per the stated stop criteria.  Per the rules we have no position in QQQ.
TLT is at the far end of the spectrum, which should be bullish but there's fundamental problems with Treasuries right now effecting the weakness
And, here's another run at an AGG benchmarked portfolio with uber low drawdraws and high linearity (RSQ).  This version also features a much lower volatility (SKEW) and gains some power from SDY and DVY,... the SPY and DOW dividend ETFs.  Note that there are no equity components in the portfolio.