Sunday, January 5, 2014

2013 Review....1.5.14

In hindsight all a guy had to do was buy and hold and buy and hold and buy and hold for 2013...just ladder on up each month for stellar returns.  Unfortunately, there's no crystal ball and the left side of the chart is only a relative measure of risk for longer term investors.

SO, how did some of the Mosaic models fare in 2013?

Here's a look at the M11 SPYDER X sectors, the latest M6 models and the ole Lazy Man weekly T2.
Keep in mind that these performance results reflect the use of no money management stops ...just what would have happened if the rotational signals had been followed. 

Using a top 2 sort this model actually under performed the SPY by a few points although overall volatility was approximately 50% of SPY. 

Next the M6 models using a top 2 sort:
Same story as M11...which makes sense since VEGA attempts to cover the whole US market with just 5 ETFs measured against SPY.  The advantage here was the extremely low volatility of the model versus SPY.

The Small World model did outperform SPY and was characterized by extended runs in the top ranked
ETFs.  Both the short and long term metrics look attractive although the shorter term volatility has been a bit choppy.

Now the Schwab no fee model...Not an endorsement for Schwab...but no fees........
The model followed SPY closely, again with sustained runs in the top ranked ETFs.  
Once again, the results of these models reflect NO MONEY MANAGEMENT STOPS.  Although the markets were solidly upslope all year there were clear periods of retracement when it was possible to scalp off an additional 10% or more depending on the aggressiveness of your trading following the P6, RSQ and other embedded stops.

Finally the weekly traded Lazy Man .....with a market neutral blend of ETFs:
A little hard to see unless you blow it up on your screen but this was actually the best deal of the year.
Results are shown for the past 7 years and you recently received the platform as part of the Yahoo snafu so you can try out other blends that may be more reflective of your interests. 
Worth a look if you like the Lazy Man pace,

Next week we'll consider whether superior returns and money management can be achieved by simply trading SPY with M3 in lieu of a sector basket.