Monday, August 31, 2015

A Little Perspective....08.31.15

Here's a little lookback on how the summer months have played out so far...  and a reason not to get too enthusiastic about that 1000 point pop we saw last week.  I'm a technical guy about 95% of the time with a healthy respect for the HFTs and those wild and crazy politicos in China, Greece, Puerto Pico, etc.who love to manipulate the markets  By the way...anyone notice that Triparis resigned? Now we'll have a whole new Greek drama coming up.   OK, enough gripping.
This is a 4 hour bar chart of the past 100 days and you can see we basically went nowhere during that period until the last 2 weeks in August when Greek worries worn the markets down and then the Chinese dropped the devaluation bomb and took the SPY down another 15 points just like that.
Now.... the current chart does not look bullish to me.  If, in fact, we see weakness tomorrow and the next day we are more likely to revisit the mini-crash lows..... so caution is critical at this junction.