Friday, September 14, 2012

T 3 Update.. 9.14.12

As suspected, the FED's announcement of a new QE3 buying program goosed the markets dramatically Thursday and the action on TLT was particularly wild. As of this morning (Friday) TLT is taking a huge hit (-2.5%), putting it $1 below my previously suggested reversal level of 119.5.  The technical outlook on TLT look ominous right now but that could change in an it did yesterday.

GLD continues to post new highs with increasing momentum as it still holds #1 ranking after 14 days.

T3's performance is holding up very well relative to the SPY on both the 5 day and 30 day returns.

The red alerts on Tuesday morning turned out to be a bit premature (there's an understatement), but that's the way the MRSI and DB signals called 'em.  Had the FED not announced QE3, yesterday would have turned out quite differently. Monday's upcoming look at the hairy bottom pattern may shed some more light on how the MRSI and DB signals assess momentum.

Recapping the 2 most recent short term MRSI/DB  colorized trades:
QQQ entry at 9/5 Open, exited at 9/13 Open = .98% return
XLE entry at 9/5 Open, exited at 9/13 Open = 4.4% return

Just as an aside look at how XLE migrated across the ranking matrix from slot #10 on 9/4 to its current #3 slot.  That's the pattern that makes money on the short term trades.
Now QQQ, that's another story, behaving more like a bug in a frying pan since 9/4 than a momentum following ETF, but it's still on a strong run...just not as strong as our other T3 components.

Based on the week's earlier issue with T3 ranking data being end of day and the MRSI and DB signals being real time...I've added an ALERT line above the rankings and in the future will post any new entry or exit signals on the day they fire on that line.  In the event that the T3 is not scheduled to be published that particular day when the signals fire I will issue a special T3 alert post prior to the close that day.