Monday, September 17, 2012

T1, T2, T3 T4..a Quick Look...9.17.12

Since you asked... several readers wanted to know why T3 and not T1 or T2.
Here's a quick visual response to that very good question as we take a squint at how investing in the top 1, 2, 3 or 4 works out  over 2 years.  We can see T1 has some problems resulting from trying to chase the leader, but T2 definitely is attractive in terms of total returns although it does have periods when it also lags.
T4 looks very similar to T3..our default model, and it has been a screamer over the last month.

While we could spent considerable time debating the merits of each model, it is apparent that either T2,T3 or T4 have robust correlations, produce similar results and involve a similar level of risk...while T1 is best avoided as anything other than a short term trading vehicle and a momentum indicator.  This is good news in terms of planning capital allocations but it's still up to each investor to determine which model suits his needs best.


The hairy bottom pattern will be reviewed in next Monday's research posting.