Wednesday, September 5, 2012

T 3 Update..9.5.12

Here's our current Situations as of Tuesday's close.  Note that I've posted the color signals for QQQ and XLE although I'm waiting for another day's confirmation before getting committed.  Why is that?
Because QQQ has fallen off the top 3 list where's it's held a long term position so this is an important development and we want to see if its just  temporary weakness or a change of trend.
Same story with XLE which has fallen off its hot streak to slot # 10 for the past 3 days.  Maybe it's time for it to get rolling again, but let's wait for a little for supportive evidence before jumping on this one.

Note to subscribers:
My attempts to explore variations of the Lazy Man portfolio and at the same time simplify the Newsletter format posted yesterday apparently caused as much confusion as clarity so let me try again to explain my intentions and my goals in moving forward with Lazy Man.

The bigger goal here was to provide 2 investment solutions using a similar portfolio.

#1.  A long term asset allocation model (Tuesday's LM model)  which currently holds zero position in SPY, although SPY may become an active component at some point in the future. 
    This is a risk maximized investment model that follows the requirement for monthly rebalancing and which includes a risk managed version.
    The model is like TAQK but obviously includes Gold and IEF instead of SH and XLK.
    This is essentially a buy and hold portfolio which may be added to incrementally as ACCUMULATE signals trigger, on a monthly laddering basis, or as the mood strikes you.

#2.  A Situations version of the  Lazy Man...posted Saturday..which is a fixed portfolio of the 6 ETFs in equal $ amounts.
    The goal here is to provide some shorter term trading opportunities using the Lazy Man portfolio while at the same time relying on the relative safety of this blend of ETFs..
    The Situations version will focus more on MRSI, Delta Band and ranked momentum based trading signals rather than the long term risk management behavior of the #1 version.
   
Based on the little survey a couple weeks ago most readers would like to trade either the portfolio ETFs or their options on a shorter term basis (5-10 days) to augment the equity appreciation of the Mosaic models and this is my attempt to satisfy that desire. From now on the Lazy Man will be posted in 2 versions:  (1) the long term proportional positions model and (2) the Situations daily format momentum version.
The Saturday Lazy Man post (in weekly bars) will be archived as a reference point only.  It was intended to showcase the tendency for various sectors to remain market leaders for extended periods of time and also to provide a basis for further research on how to capitalize on these trends. The effect is much more dramatic on weekly rather than daily bars and that was one of my goals for the post.

Future explorations into alternate Lazy Man (and other portfolio) formats will be reserved for Mondays.